India’s GDP growth projected to hit a 4-year low of 6.4% in FY25.

India’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.4% in FY25, a four-year low compared to 8.2% in FY24, according to government estimates. This falls short of the Reserve Bank of India’s revised projection of 6.6% for the fiscal year ending March 2025.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) also estimates a 6.4% growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) for FY25, down from 7.2% in FY24, while nominal GVA is expected to grow at 9.3%, slightly above the previous year’s 8.5%. These estimates are crucial for shaping the Union Budget and reflect a broader economic slowdown, following a 5.4% GDP growth in Q2 FY24.

Sectoral Insights:

• Agriculture: Growth is expected to rise to 3.8% in FY25, up from 1.4% in FY24.
• Construction: Estimated to grow by 8.6%.
• Financial and Real Estate Services: Projected growth of 7.3%.
• Private Consumption: Expected to expand by 7.3%, up from 4% in FY24.
• Government Spending: Growth forecast at 4.1%, compared to 2.5% last year.

The data signals challenges for policymakers as they balance fiscal stability with measures to support economic recovery amidst slowing growth.