Experts say the AI market could split into different groups by 2026 as investors become more careful about where their money goes.
At the end of 2025, tech stocks saw big ups and downs. High company values, heavy spending, and growing debt made many investors worry about a possible AI bubble.
According to Stephen Yiu from Blue Whale Growth Fund, investors will soon start looking closely at who is making money from AI and who is only spending money.
Right now, many investors — especially small investors using AI-focused ETFs — treat all AI companies the same. They don’t clearly separate:
Companies that have AI products but no clear way to earn money
Companies spending huge amounts on AI infrastructure
Companies actually earning from AI demand
Yiu says AI is still in an early stage, but soon the market will start rewarding profitable companies and questioning others.
Three Main AI Groups
Experts see the AI world falling into three groups:
Private AI startups – Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic raised huge funding in 2025.
Big tech AI spenders – Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google spending billions on AI.
AI infrastructure companies – Firms like Nvidia and Broadcom that sell chips and hardware needed for AI.
Yiu prefers investing in companies earning from AI spending, not those spending heavily without clear returns.
Valuation Concerns
Many big tech companies are now trading at very high prices because of AI excitement. However, experts warn these prices may not be fully justified yet.
Some companies receiving AI investments still don’t make profits — especially in areas like quantum computing. In such cases, stock prices are driven more by hope than real results.
Big Tech Is Changing
Earlier, companies like Meta and Google were light on assets. Now, they invest heavily in:
Data centers
GPUs
Power and land
This changes their business risk. Experts say these companies should no longer be valued like simple software firms.
Debt and Future Risks
Some tech giants raised money through debt to fund AI growth. While big names still have strong finances, smaller companies could struggle.
If AI earnings don’t grow faster than costs, profits could fall. Over time, expensive hardware will lose value, which could further hurt margins.
Experts agree that differences between AI companies will become clearer, and investors will need to choose carefully.