Traders Bet 73% Chance Trump’s Tariffs Will Be Ruled Illegal

Traders and prediction markets are signalling a strong likelihood that the US Supreme Court will rule former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs illegal, based on current trading odds. As the landmark decision looms, markets and investors are closely watching how this could reshape US trade policy, executive power limits, and global economic expectations.

Prediction Markets Signal Trump Tariffs Likely to Be Struck Down

According to blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders currently assign about a 73% probability that the Supreme Court will declare Trump’s tariffs unlawful. Meanwhile, only 27% of traders believe the tariffs will be upheld by the nation’s highest court.

These odds reflect growing skepticism among speculators that the Court will side with the administration’s assertion that the President had the authority to impose broad tariffs using emergency executive powers.

What’s at Stake? The Legality of Trump’s Tariffs

The core legal question before the Supreme Court is whether a US President can unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs under national security or emergency powers, specifically the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), or whether such actions exceed legal and constitutional boundaries.

Lower courts, including the US Court of International Trade and the Federal Appeals Court, have already ruled that the tariffs were unlawful and beyond executive authority, although some rulings are pending Supreme Court review.

If the Supreme Court affirms those lower court decisions, it could mark a major limitation on presidential trade powers, reshaping how future administrations implement economic policy without explicit legislative authorization.

Why Traders Are Betting Against Tariff Survival

Prediction markets convert traders’ expectations into probability odds. The surge in bets against the legality of Trump’s tariff orders suggests traders anticipate the Supreme Court will reaffirm constitutional limits on executive action.

Several factors influence this sentiment:

• Legal precedent: Lower courts have already found Trump’s tariffs unlawful.

• Judicial skepticism: Some justices previously signaled uncertainty about the scope of executive authority during oral arguments.

• Prediction market momentum: Odds climbing to over 70% reflect increasing trader confidence against the tariffs.

Trump’s Response: Strong Warnings and Economic Concerns

President Trump has strongly defended his tariff policies, describing them as the backbone of economic strength, faster growth, and “the strongest and fastest economic turnaround” in American history.

On social media platform Truth Social, he warned that a decision against the tariffs would lead to massive financial consequences, including potential refunds totalling hundreds of billions of dollars, calling it a “complete mess” for the US.

His comments highlight just how politically and economically charged the tariff issue has become, with significant implications for international trade relationships, domestic industries, and government revenue streams.

Economic and Market Implications If Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal

A ruling against the tariffs could have broad consequences:

1. Tariff Refunds and Treasury Impact

• The government might be forced to refund tariff revenues collected under Trump’s policies, which some estimates place in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

• This could impact federal budget projections and fiscal plans tied to tariff revenues.

2. Market Reaction and Industry Benefits

• Removing tariffs can lower input costs for companies that import goods, potentially boosting profits and reducing consumer prices.

• Sectors like retail, manufacturing, and technology could see positive market shifts if tariff burdens are eased or reversed.

3. Trade Policy and Law Precedent

• A Supreme Court decision against executive tariff authority would set an important constitutional precedent on the separation of powers between Congress and the presidency in shaping trade law.

Different Odds Across Trading Platforms

While Polymarket’s odds stand near 70–75% against the legality of the tariffs, other prediction platforms like Kalshi also show similarly low odds for a Trump victory reinforcing the view that the Supreme Court might strike down the tariffs.

Even though markets are leaning against the tariffs surviving, the total amount wagered remains modest, and actual legal outcomes can differ from market sentiment.

When Will the Supreme Court Decide?

The Supreme Court was expected to deliver its ruling later today (January 14, 2026) after considering consolidated challenges to the tariff orders.

Whether the Court decides to fully invalidate, partly limit, or uphold the tariff authority has far-reaching consequences not just for the US economy but also for how executive power is interpreted in future economic policy decisions.